Oscar Predictions Part 2: Avatar Will Win Best Picture

By: Nathan Swank

It’s time for the big guns!  The 6 major categories are somewhat usually decided beforehand with a lot of clear front-runners.  The key is picking the upsets or the close races.  Unfortunately, I don’t see any true upsets but there are some close races.  The Picture and Director are the two categories that do not seem to have one clear front-runner.  So without further ado, here are my picks for the final 6 major categories.  You can thank me by giving me a portion of your office pool or Vegas winnings.  If you lose, you can cry alone in a corner as I usually do on Mondays.

Supporting ActressPenelope Cruz in NINE, Vera Farmiga in UP IN THE AIR, Maggie Gyllenhaal in CRAZY HEART, Anna Kendrick in UP IN THE AIR, Mo’Nique in PRECIOUS:  BASED ON THE NOVEL ‘PUSH’ BY SAPPHIRE

Monique in PRECIOUS: BASED ON THE NOVEL ‘PUSH’ BY SAPPHIRE- While the two girls from UP IN THE AIR are great and Penelope is always beautifully terrific, Mo’Nique has this one in the bag.  She was a villain that I have never fully been aware of, which is scarier because her character exists everywhere more than we realize.  I’m not quite sure why Maggie Gyllenhaal was nominated.  It’s ironic because she has had plenty of better performances that have never been nominated.

Supporting Actor – Matt Damon in INVICTUS, Woody Harrelson in THE MESSENGER, Christopher Plummer in THE LAST STATION, Stanley Tucci in THE LOVELY BONES, Christoph Waltz in INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS

Christoph Waltz in INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS- Waltz had the best performance of all the acting nominees in every category.  He was wickedly evil while being charismatically charming.  One of the most captivating performances I have ever seen.

Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds

Actress – Sandra Bullock in THE BLIND SIDE; Helen Mirren in THE LAST STATION, Carey Mulligan in AN EDUCATION, Gabourey Sidibe in PRECIOUS:  BASED ON THE NOVEL ‘PUSH’ BY SAPPHIRE, Meryl Streep in JULIE & JULIA

Sandra Bullock in THE BLIND SIDE- Completely ridiculous that Bullock is going to win, let alone even being nominated, especially when all the other nominees were far more impressive with such stronger performances.  Each of these women were amazing in their respective roles.  If Carey Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe had a little more experience they would easily win in different years.  If Meryl Streep wasn’t so revered having been nominated a whopping 16 times and won twice, she would win.  I hope I’m wrong.  I so hope I’m wrong.  I would gladly lose any Oscar pool, as long as it’s because I was wrong in this category.

Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side


Actor – Jeff Bridges in CRAZY HEART, George Clooney in UP IN THE AIR, Colin Firth in A SINGLE MAN, Morgan Freeman in INVICTUS, Jeremy Renner in THE HURT LOCKER

Jeff Bridges in CRAZY HEART- He did do a fantastic job but this is still more of a win for his lifetime of work.  Jeremy Renner might have been an upset if Bridges had won before.  Clooney had one of his strongest performances to date and Colin Firth was amazing- I foresee an eventual win for him in the future.  Bridges is well deserved of this award.

Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart

DirectorJames Cameron for AVATAR, Kathryn Bigelow for THE HURT LOCKER, Quentin Tarantino for INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS, Lee Daniels for PRECIOUS: BASED ON THE NOVEL ‘PUSH’ BY SAPPHIRE, Jason Reitman for UP IN THE AIR

Kathryn Bigelow for THE HURT LOCKER- I keep going back and forth on this one.  As much as I would love to see Tarantino win, it’s between the one time husband and wife, James Cameron or Kathryn Bigelow.  Cameron totally deserves it; he’s been working on this film for 10 years.  He made a movie that people love, becoming the top grossing film of all time beating the record set by him.  He invented new technology for filmmaking.  But he is just so awkward and unlikeable when receiving awards.  His speech from his TITANIC Oscar and his AVATAR Golden Globe makes you not want to vote for him.  He himself has gone on record supporting his ex-wife Bigelow to win this award because he already has one.  I’m sure he thinks that’s sweet but it comes off more egotistical than anything.  Here is how I think it will go down.  They announce Cameron as the winner but he does something unknowingly pompous, embarrassing and stupid by offering his award to Bigelow.  She would be the first female to win this award, but I’m sure that is not how she would want to win it- pity from her ex-husband.

Kathryn Bigelow on the set of The Hurt Locker


AVATAR- I do hope it wins over the slightly over rated THE HURT LOCKER.  It’s ironic, that most years I root for a smaller film that never wins and this year a smaller film that I won’t be rooting for, THE HURTLOCKER, could pull off the win.  I would be disgusted if AVATAR loses…unless of course it’s to the all around great film INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS.  How come the Academy never seems to agree with me? Easy on the smart-alec answers.

Click here to read Part 1 of our Oscar Predictions

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