Well if you have been reading the rest of my predictions, it should be no secret what I believe will be winning the top award of the night. In probably one of the more decided victories in recent years, I still always leave a little uncertainty in my head for a possible upset. But I think I have a better chance at seeing THE ARTIST’s cute little doggie relieve himself on George Clooney’s head. With that pretty image, I bring you Part 4 of our Oscar Predictions.
Original Screenplay: THE ARTIST, BRIDESMAIDS, MARGIN CALL, MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, A SEPARATION
Projected Winner: MIDNIGHT IN PARIS – History would inform me that THE ARTIST should win because nearly every film that wins best picture wins a best screenplay. But seriously, the screenplay was the weakest part of the film since it just copied age-old formula and almost duplicated films we’ve seen in the past. I think Hollywood will reward their crush, Woody Allen in hopes that he might actually show up. While I think A SEPARATION is clearly the best finding gray areas in a very serious situation, this might be Allen’s last shot at one of these and his charmingly whimsical script is quite good.
Adapted Screenplay: THE DESCENDANTS, HUGO, THE IDES OF MARCH, MONEYBALL, TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
Projected Winner: THE DESCENDANTS – I don’t think three of these belong, but HUGO does have a lot of momentum behind it. No I think this is a race between Aaron Sorkin’s incredibly fascinating MONEYBALL and Alexander Payne’s humorously depressing THE DESCENDANT. Since I believe Clooney will lose best actor, the Academy member will want to reward THE DESCENDANTS in some capacity. And because Sorkin won last year for THE SOCIAL NETWORK, I think Payne will get his second win since SIDEWAYS.
Director: Michael Hazanavicius for THE ARTIST, Alexander Payne for THE DESCENDANTS, Martin Scorsese for HUGO, Woody Allen for MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, Terrence Malick for THE TREE OF LIFE
Projected Winner: Michael Hazanavicius for THE ARTIST – I cannot believe Allen got nominated here. A nice script but one of the top five directed films it is not even close. In my humble opinion Malick is clearly the most deserving however, Picture and Director nearly always go hand in hand. Other than a slight upset chance from the beloved Martin Scorsese I foresee this going to the one relatively unknown director.
Best Picture: THE ARTIST, THE DESCENDANTS, EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE, THE HELP, HUGO, MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, MONEYBALL, THE TREE OF LIFE, WAR HORSE
Projected Winner: THE ARTIST – Nine nominated films that all feel like very safe run of the mill choices. Not that I’m completely complaining about the choices it’s just that the year didn’t provide much luster with the one exception of my favorite THE TREE OF LIFE. I know there is no way that it has a shot to win with so many hating the confusing abstract cinematic spectacle. Even I initially wasn’t feeling it but as the film went on and time continues to pass, I realize how much it moved me emotionally and intellectually. For now I’ll just be thankful for the multiple nominations but it is the one film that truly did something different and I think will be remembered. With that said, THE DESCENDANTS and MONEYBALL were excellent films and I would be happy if either pulled off a win but again for the most part all clean and safe. THE HELP and EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE dealt with unfortunate tragic issues but handled them in mostly a sweet kind of way. And is it me or are we living in the past with our filmmaking? And the Academy members are eating it up. WARHORSE is an overdramatic sentimental epic in the vain of earlier films, MIDNIGHT IN PARIS is about a man wishing he lived in an earlier time period and this year’s runner up is a kid’s movie about preserving film in HUGO. Perhaps the oldest and cleanest, although not the safest being a silent black & white film, is also this year’s most widely liked and odds on favorite to win THE ARTIST. It may not be the best choice but it’s the safest choice among a very “nice guys” kind of group
Oscar Predictions Part 1: Documentary, Foreign Language Film and Animated Feature
Oscar Predictions Part 2: Visual Effects, Score, Cinematography and other Technical Awards
Oscar Predictions Part 3: Acting and Supporting Acting Awards
By Nathan Swank
